Title of Abstract

Determinants of Crime: a Macroanalysis of the Southeastern United States

Poster Number

61

Submitting Student(s)

Joshua ByrdFollow

Faculty Mentor

Danko Tarabar, Ph.D.: tarabard@winthrop.edu

College

College of Business Administration

Department

Accounting, Finance & Economics

Faculty Mentor

Danko Tarabar, Ph.D.

Abstract

In this paper, I examine potential determinants of crime by analyzing aggregate data from seven states in the southeast of America over time: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. The aim of this research is twofold: (1) I analyze the compounding effects of multiple economic variables on the crime rate, and (2) I observe the variance in impact that economic variables have on property crime rates versus violent crime rates. Previous studies show that economic variables do in fact affect crime rates. Specifically, this paper examines the following: which type of crime rates are most strongly influenced by economic variables, the interaction of poverty rates and unemployment rates on criminal activity, and, to a lesser degree, state individuality. I theorize that unemployment rates, poverty rates, gross state product (GSP), and tertiary education, contribute to the crime rate. The results of this research indicate that the interaction of poverty and unemployment is significant and positively related to the property crime rate. Additionally, the property crime rate has a stronger negative relationship with economic conditions in comparison with the violent crime rate, where the results are not as conclusive.

Course Assignment

ECON 306 - Tarabar

Type of Presentation

Poster presentation

Start Date

16-4-2021 3:00 PM

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Apr 16th, 3:00 PM

Determinants of Crime: a Macroanalysis of the Southeastern United States

In this paper, I examine potential determinants of crime by analyzing aggregate data from seven states in the southeast of America over time: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. The aim of this research is twofold: (1) I analyze the compounding effects of multiple economic variables on the crime rate, and (2) I observe the variance in impact that economic variables have on property crime rates versus violent crime rates. Previous studies show that economic variables do in fact affect crime rates. Specifically, this paper examines the following: which type of crime rates are most strongly influenced by economic variables, the interaction of poverty rates and unemployment rates on criminal activity, and, to a lesser degree, state individuality. I theorize that unemployment rates, poverty rates, gross state product (GSP), and tertiary education, contribute to the crime rate. The results of this research indicate that the interaction of poverty and unemployment is significant and positively related to the property crime rate. Additionally, the property crime rate has a stronger negative relationship with economic conditions in comparison with the violent crime rate, where the results are not as conclusive.